MODELING FIRES´ RISK IN ARGENTINA – A CONTRIBUTION TO PUBLIC FIRE MANAGEMENT POLICIES
Abstract
According to FAO (2021), the 90% of fires are explained by human causes. It is therefore essential to include anthropic factors in forest and rural fire hazard assessment and early warning systems. Although Argentina has a forest and rural fire hazard assessment and early warning system based on the Canadian system, it only estimates 1 of its 3 components, the Fire Weather Index (FWI). The national system omits the component of fire occurrence prediction, better known as FOP, based on anthropic variables. This article presents an econometric model of fire occurrence for Argentina, incorporating anthropic information at the departmental level and controlling for meteorological variables. The objective is to generate information that allows the development of a system that guarantees the effectiveness and efficiency in fire management. The results achieved indicate that livestock activity, variables related to quality of life, population density and road infrastructure have a significant impact on the occurrence of fires. In conclusion, it can be stated that it is recommended for Argentina that public fire management policies focus on incorporating prevention strategies based on greater awareness and control of fires carried out in livestock farms and in those areas surrounding population centers and road access as well as on improving the quality of life of rural populations.
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