Macroeconomía y conducta
Una propuesta de agenda
Palabras clave:
Macroeconomía, Comportamiento
Resumen
La Economía de la Conducta (EC) ha ganado prominencia al incorporar hallazgos de la psicología y otras ciencias del comportamiento para comprender mejor las decisiones económicas de los individuos. Si bien la EC ha logrado avances significativos en la microeconomía, su aplicación en la macroeconomía ha sido más limitada y fragmentada. Este artículo explora las posibilidades de desarrollar una "Macroeconomía de la Conducta" coherente y analiza los desafíos que enfrenta esta agenda. Después de revisar los antecedentes y la situación actual, se propone que las heurísticas, más que los sesgos cognitivos, son el concepto conductual más prometedor para conectar los niveles micro y macro. Se argumenta que el uso generalizado de heurísticas puede producir resultados agregados insostenibles, a pesar de que parezcan racionales a nivel individual. Utilizando la experiencia de la inestable economía argentina como caso de estudio, se ilustran posibles líneas de investigación conceptual y experimental. El artículo concluye discutiendo las implicaciones de política de esta perspectiva conductual, incluida la relevancia de los "nudges", las estrategias individuales versus sistémicas, el aprendizaje racional y el manejo de fluctuaciones e inflación.
Citas
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Shiller, R. J. (2015): Irrational exuberance. Revised and expanded 3 ed. Princeton university press.
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Stantcheva, S. (2024). Why do we dislike inflation? National Bureau of Economic Research, w32300.
Sunstein, C. R. (2014). Nudging: A very short guide. Journal of Consumer Policy, 37(4), 583-588.
Thaler, R. H. (2016). Behavioral economics: Past, present, and future. American economic review, 106(7), 1577-1600.
---- (1981). Some Empirical Evidence on Dynamic Inconsistency, Economics Letters, 8, 201–207.
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. Yale University Press.
Varian, H. (2003). Intermediate microeconomics: a modern approach. Elsevier.
Wilkinson, N., & Klaes, M. (2017). An introduction to behavioral economics. Bloomsbury Publishing.
Yellen, J. (1995). Efficiency wage models of unemployment, 280-289). Macmillan Education UK.
---- (2002). Behavioral macroeconomics and macroeconomic behavior. American Economic Review, 92(3), 411-433.
Angner, E. (2020). A course in behavioral economics. Bloomsbury Publishing.
Baker, H. K., & Ricciardi, V. (Eds.). (2014). Investor behavior: The psychology of financial planning and investing. John Wiley & Sons. Shiller, R. J. (2015). Irrational exuberance: Revised and expanded third edition. Princeton University Press.
Barberis, N., Greenwood, R., Jin, L., & Shleifer, A. (2018). Extrapolation and bubbles. Journal of Financial Economics, 129(2), 203-227.
Benartzi, S., Beshears, J., Milkman, K. L., Sunstein, C. R., Thaler, R. H., Shankar, M., & Galing, S. (2017). Should governments invest more in nudging? Psychological Science, 28(8), 1041-1055.
Bowles, S., & Halliday, S. D. (2022). Microeconomics: competition, conflict, and coordination. Oxford University Press.
Bruni, L., & Sugden, R. (2007). The road not taken: how psychology was removed from economics, and how it might be brought back. The Economic Journal, 117(516), 146-173.
Carroll, C. D., & Samwick, A. A. (1998). How important is precautionary saving? Review of Economics and statistics, 80(3), 410-419.
Cartwright, E. (2018). Behavioral economics. Routledge.
Cavallo, A., Cruces, G., & Perez-Truglia, R. (2016). Learning from potentially-biased statistics: Household inflation perceptions and expectations in Argentina (No. w22103). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Chater, N., & Loewenstein, G. (2023). The i-frame and the s-frame: How focusing on individual-level solutions has led behavioral public policy astray. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 46, e147.
Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips curve alive and well after all? Inflation expectations and the missing disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 197-232.
Conlisk, J. (1996). Why bounded rationality? Journal of economic literature, 34(2), 669-700.
Curtin, R. (2016). George Katona: A founder of behavioral economics. In Routledge handbook of behavioral economics, 18-35. Routledge.
De Grauwe, P. (2012). Lectures on behavioral macroeconomics. Princeton University Press.
Dhami, S. (2016). The foundations of behavioral economic analysis. Oxford University Press.
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets. Journal of finance, 25(2), 383-417.
Frank, R. H. (1992). Microeconomía y conducta. Editorial McGraw-Hill.
Frenkel, R., y Fanelli, J. M. (1996). Estabilidad y estructura: interacciones en el crecimiento económico. En Estabilización macroeconómica, reforma estructural y comportamiento industrial: estructura y funcionamiento del sector manufacturero latinoamericano en los años 90, 21-79. Buenos Aires: Alianza Editorial.
Gabaix, X. (2019). Behavioral inattention. In Handbook of behavioral economics: Applications and foundations 1, 2, 261-343. North-Holland.
Gigerenzer, G. (2004). Fast and frugal heuristics: The tools of bounded rationality. Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making, 62, 88.
Gigerenzer, G., & Berg, N. (2010). As-if behavioral economics: Neoclassical economics in disguise? History of economic ideas: XVIII, 1, 1000-1033.
Hantula, D. A. (2019). Replication and reliability in behavior science and behavior analysis: A call for a conversation. Perspectives on Behavior Science, 42, 1-11.
Heymann, D., Montero, G., Juarros, P., y Bricchetti, J. (2020). Fallas de coordinación y crisis macroeconómicas. Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política, (46), 25. https://ojs.econ.uba.ar/index.php/DT-IIEP/article/view/2512
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press.
Kreps, D. M. (2020). A course in microeconomic theory. Princeton university press.
Laibson, D. (1997). Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2), 443-478.
Luzzi, M. D., y Wilkis, A. (2019). El dólar: historia de una moneda argentina. Crítica.
Malmendier, U., & Nagel, S. (2016). Learning from inflation experiences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(1), 53-87.
Mira, P. J. (2022a). Consumo y fluctuaciones: ¿ Qué rol para la economía de la conducta? Tesis Doctoral Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Buenos Aires.
---- (2022b). Revisitando los costos de la inflación. Voces, 6(11), 2023.
Mullainathan, S., & Shafir, E. (2013). Scarcity: Why having too little means so much. Macmillan.
Nelson, R. R., Dosi, G., Helfat, C. E., & Pyka, A. (2018). Modern evolutionary economics: An overview.
Nogués, G. (2023). Pensar con Otros: una guía de supervivencia en tiempos de posverdad. El gato y la caja.
Olafsson, A., & M. Pagel (2018). The liquid hand-to-mouth: Evidence from personal finance management software, The Review of Financial Studies, 31(11), 4398-4446.
Pietschnig, J., & Voracek, M. (2015). One century of global IQ gains: A formal meta-analysis of the Flynn effect (1909–2013). Perspectives on Psychological Science, 10(3), 282-306.
Pindyck, R., & Rubinfeld, D. (2017). Microeconomics (9th Global Ed.). Pearson.
Pinker, S. (2022). Rationality: What it is, why it seems scarce, why it matters. Penguin.
Ruggeri, K., Panin, A., Vdovic, M., Većkalov, B., Abdul-Salaam, N., Achterberg, J., ... & Toscano, F. (2022). The globalizability of temporal discounting. Nature Human Behaviour, 6(10), 1386-1397.
Schwartz, B. (2015). The paradox of choice. Positive psychology in practice: Promoting human flourishing in work, health, education, and everyday life, 121-138.
Shefrin, H. M., & R. Thaler (1988). The behavioral life-cycle hypothesis, Economic Inquiry, 26, 609-43.
Shiller, R. J. (2015): Irrational exuberance. Revised and expanded 3 ed. Princeton university press.
Stango, V., & Zinman, J. (2020). Behavioral biases are temporally stable. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 27860. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27860
Stantcheva, S. (2024). Why do we dislike inflation? National Bureau of Economic Research, w32300.
Sunstein, C. R. (2014). Nudging: A very short guide. Journal of Consumer Policy, 37(4), 583-588.
Thaler, R. H. (2016). Behavioral economics: Past, present, and future. American economic review, 106(7), 1577-1600.
---- (1981). Some Empirical Evidence on Dynamic Inconsistency, Economics Letters, 8, 201–207.
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. Yale University Press.
Varian, H. (2003). Intermediate microeconomics: a modern approach. Elsevier.
Wilkinson, N., & Klaes, M. (2017). An introduction to behavioral economics. Bloomsbury Publishing.
Yellen, J. (1995). Efficiency wage models of unemployment, 280-289). Macmillan Education UK.
Publicado
2024-08-05
Cómo citar
Mira, P., & Coll, A. (2024). Macroeconomía y conducta. Documentos De Trabajo Del Instituto Interdisciplinario De Economía Política, (89), 1-37. Recuperado a partir de https://ojs.econ.uba.ar/index.php/DT-IIEP/article/view/3080
Sección
Documento de trabajo
